Latin American and Caribbean Growth Will Be 3.5% in 2013

Latin American and Caribbean countries will grow by 3.5% in 2013, thanks to buoyant internal demand and the improved performance of Argentina and Brazil compared with 2012, according to the new projections presented today by ECLAC ("Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean") on it's "Updated economic overview of Latin America and the Caribbean 2012".

About Chile, the same document projects a result of 5% in the Gross Domestic Product, increasing from the 4.8% estimated on the previous analysis.  

ECLAC informed that the 2013 results are partly due to the expectations of higher growth in Argentina (3.5%) and Brazil (3.0%), thanks to the upturn in agricultural activity and investment (which fell in those countries in 2012).

The regional expansion is also backed by ongoing growth in consumption in the wake of improved labour indicators and rising bank credit to the private sector (and, to a lesser extent, investment). This has combined with consistently high prices for raw materials, which are expected to remain elevated despite falling in relation to levels seen in 2012.

Following the information presented today on it's website, the regional growth is slightly lower than the estimate provided in December (3.8%).  This is mainly due to the ongoing uncertainty about the future of the world economy, sluggish developed economies and a less dynamic recovery than expected in Argentina and Brazil.

Paraguay will lead growth in 2013, with an expected rise in GDP of 10%, followed by Panama (8.0%), Peru (6.0%) and Haiti (6.0%). The Plurinational State of Bolivia, Chile and Nicaragua will grow by 5.0%, while Colombia will expand by 4.5% and Uruguay by 3.8%.

Mexico, with expected growth of 3.5% in 2013 and the Central American economies, plus Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic (3.8%) are expected to benefit from a more buoyant United States economy, combined with improvements in the agricultural sector (especially in Cuba, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic) and the construction sector (in Guatemala, Haiti and Honduras).

South American countries, which tend to be more specialized in the production and export of raw materials, will grow on average by 3.5% in 2013, thanks to continued growth in the Asian economies. This will have positive repercussions on the level of revenues and the performance of export activities, the United Nations agency said.

Finally, the report projects that the Caribbean growth rate will continue to accelerate, with an expected increase of 2.0%, on the back of the buoyancy of economies specialized in producing and exporting raw materials (mainly Guyana and Suriname) and the recovery in countries more focused on exporting tourist services (as a result of the improved economic situation in the United States).